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PANDEMIC
Worldwide Tragedy: An Astronomical AIDS Pandemic
By Sarah Pollak
CBN News Reporter
In China, a recent United Nations report says the disease could lead to "unimaginable human suffering, economic loss and social devastation."
CBN.com – NEW YORK CITY — HIV and AIDS are ravaging most of Africa. Now, the deadly AIDS virus is exploding into Eastern Europe and most of Asia, as well. Experts say parts of these regions may look just as bad as Africa in as little as eight years, and the potential impact of a massive Eurasia AIDS epidemic could be utterly devastating.
China, India and Russia are some of America's most important trading partners. They are heavily populated, powerful countries in the world's political
arena.
Many experts say instability in any one of these countries affects the entire world. Now the deadly AIDS virus threatens to shake not only these heavy hitters, but
to spread to entire regions of the world.
UNICEF Director Carol Bellamy told CBN News, "The sense of the scale of this true pandemic that we are experiencing in HIV/AIDS, I do not think is understood
that well by the average person. And yet it's like this giant tidal wave out there."
The results might leave parts of Eastern Europe and Asia just as devastated as Africa.
"It really has the impact, or the potential impact, of destabilizing society as a whole," Bellamy said. "That is what it is doing in sub-Saharan
Africa. It is truly... more teachers are dying than countries are able to train… health workers, civil servants. And if that starts to take place in countries of the scale of a China and a Russia,
then this has not only the implications of the cost of treatment and care and people dying, but it really goes to the core ability of these countries to function."
In China, a recent United Nations report says the disease could lead to "unimaginable human suffering, economic loss and social devastation." In the
past, HIV has spread like wildfire in even the most remote areas of the country.
The poor in China are illegally selling their blood to make money, using and reusing the same needles to collect the blood. For example, that is what seems to have
devastated the small farming village of Wenlou in the Henan province.
Now, the disease is beginning to spread to the general Chinese population through mainly heterosexual sex. The UN says about 1.5 million people are now infected
with the virus.
Throughout Asia, more than 200,000 children are HIV positive. Eight-year-old Zhang Xiaquing is one of those children. She often visits a Beijing clinic with her
father. If a cure for AIDS is not found soon, she will likely die.
UNICEF’S Chief Representative for China Edwin Judd warned, "China has an opportunity to avert a major, major epidemic. But it must take more action
quickly, or else we face the threat in China of seeing up to 10 million cases of HIV/AIDS by the year 2010."
In a worst case, severe epidemic scenario, there could be 100 million new HIV infections in China by the year 2025.
In India, marriages have traditionally been monogamous, but western programming on satellite TV has taught them that casual sex is cool. So sex is becoming more
and more a casual affair, and prostitution has also become a serious problem.
Now, experts warn the number of people with HIV in India may soon fly past South Africa, making India the world's most severely affected country.
Conservatively speaking, there are five million people now infected with the virus. By the year 2010, that number could be 25 million. And by 2025, with a severe
epidemic, that number could skyrocket to 140 million.
And China and India are not alone in the unfolding AIDS crisis. Eastern Europe is also experiencing rocketing infection rates. Dr. Peter Piot, Director for UNAIDS,
said, "The number of HIV infections is rising faster in Eastern Europe than anywhere else in the world."
Foreign Affairs Magazine reports Eurasia may have more AIDS related deaths in the next 25 years as the
entire planet has had so far.
The face of the AIDS epidemic in Eastern Europe is decidedly young. In the former Soviet Union, drug use and sexual promiscuity have caused the numbers of young
people infected with HIV to shoot through the roof.
Between 1997 and 2000, almost 80 percent of new infections were among people under 29.
Like so many other young Russians, Sasha is a drug addict. He got HIV through using contaminated needles to shoot heroin. Clean new syringes are expensive, but
Sasha's desire for drugs seems too strong to deny.
"I can tell you that at home I have my own syringe, but I broke a needle. When a person wants a fix he doesn't think about a syringe. I can just pick up a
syringe in the street," Sasha said.
Sasha is part of the HIV/AIDS explosion that may jump from one million today to eight million in the next eight years. It could possibly even reach 19 million by
2025.
That means that in these three regions combined, under worst case scenarios, there could be 259 million new cases of HIV, and 155 million dead by 2025.
Here at the United Nations headquarters in New York, they are desperately trying to draw attention to the growing epidemic of AIDS. But it seems the world
community is getting a little tired of hearing that story, especially in western countries.
A sort of "AIDS fatigue" has settled in with westerners. With AIDS in the news since the early 80’s, all the facts and figures have just become
overwhelming.
Bellamy said, "I think one of the unfortunate things that is happening now is that the urgency around HIV/AIDS is being lost in what I'd like to call the
industrialized countries."
HIV and AIDS appear to be largely under control in America and Western Europe. Because of that, Bellamy says it has become easier for westerners to forget the
devastation caused by the disease. But soon, Americans could also be swept up in the coming tidal wave of a full-scale AIDS pandemic.
"It's a disease that is basically debilitating the rest of the world, or could, and that will have implications for the economic growth, the human
development, even in the most developed countries," Bellamy said.
And that includes the U.S.
Unstable trading partners could mean an unstable American economy. For example, China is desperate to stop the growing AIDS crisis. The New York Times reports
the Chinese government has issued an ultimatum to western pharmaceutical manufacturers — lower prices on AIDS drugs or they will break patents.
China could start producing their own AIDS medications by the new year, and that could mean a significant financial loss for American drug companies.
These countries will also need financial help to control the epidemic. Heads of governments will likely ask for money from the UN and appeal to individual
countries with deep pockets, like the U.S.
In a few years, there could be a large hole in the work force of countries like Russia. Many of the young are now infected, and there is no cure for AIDS in the
near future. A large portion of the strongest wage earners could simply disappear from society in the coming years.
The warning and plea for help from health officials in Eurasia is clear. The tidal wave of AIDS is already breaking.
But the UN says the epidemic can be staved off with education and changes in behavior. United Nations officials say no matter how many resolutions they pass here,
it will likely be up to local communities to help stem the rising tide of AIDS.
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